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CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 5:00pm EST
deleveraging. i think the fiscal cliff we are spending a lot of time on and we will continue to see deleveraging of trades that have worked because of all of the tax implications. i don't think you can be sure this is the same santa claus rally that you want to blindly buy. last year was very painful to people who thought fundamentals would win out. you ran into deleveraging flows that were related to policy. if you don't think we are not going to have policy issues through the end of the year you are crazy. >> i think we all do the same, i believe that you can time the market and pick stocks. i know people believe that. it is interesting that today we talked about ranges in the s&p. i think we have done a good job. look at where we traded up to that 1425 that we have talked about being resistance number of times. i don't want to make a big deal out of this. today was an outside day from friday's range the low, lower than friday's low. it has been in a very defined range. i think we traded towards the upper end and i think we are heading twarts the 1375 and 1380 level again. you tra
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00pm EST
. >> all right. let me move on to your meeting with the president about the fiscal cliff. >> sure. it was optimistic. president very inclusive of business. he was open to a broad set of solutions that included all aspects, not just revenue, but spending and entitlement reform. >> so you actually felt that you saw a difference. you say it wasn't always like that. you saw a difference in the president in terms of listening and perhaps taking advice on what's to be done fiscally? >> the president had made comments he was trying to embrace the business community. he was very constructive. >> where do you think we come out on the fiscal cliff? are you expecting the economy to go over the fiscal cliff and see these taxes go high hadder and spending cuts take effect? >> my personal view is i'm still optimistic. i think the conversation has been constructive since. do we have a solution on the table yet? no. but i'm optimistic we'll get to a framework. >> why? >> there's been enough dialogue. there's been movement. everyone seems to recognize the problem. everybody realizes there has to be a revenue component, spend component, entitlement reform component. for us, the business community and all the ceos, certainty is the greatest stimulus for us
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 7:00pm EST
compromise with their latest counter offer on the fiscal cliff. not as many spending cuts as they originally wanted and slight entitlement reform. the white house has just reject this offer out of hand and once again it solely is because it doesn't raise tax rates on the rich. when is obama going to rise above that obsession? when will he lose that over rich people and tax rates? i don't know. tonight, i'm is going to try to call his bluff. anyway, also breaking tonight, potential catastrophe if syria uses its chemical weapons. president obama issues a stern warning to syria and i quote the world is watching. and there will be consequences if syria uses these wmds. have we just committed ourselves to another war? and the gun control debate is squarely back in the spotlight tonight after the murder/suicide by nfl player in kansas city, second amendment instead of blaming the sick people who use them. republicans have responded to a fiscal cliff counter offer to president obama. eamon javers joins us now from washington with all the details. good evening. >> reporter: good evening.
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00am EST
fiscal cliff. the structural challenge is what it's going to take to get a grand bargain. what we need to do is to avoid the fiscal cliff, have a down payments of both spending reductions and effective tax rate increases geared towards the well off. all right? we need to defer most of the major spending reductions and tax rate increases until a date later than 2013. couple that with a deferral of the debt ceiling limit to the same date so that we can achieve a grand bargain in 2013, which will be budget control, comprehensive tax reform, social insurance reforms, those types of things. we have to be realistic about what can be achieved before the end of the year and we have to build to achieving a grand bargain in 2013. >> steve, last year, we know how close everyone got and we also know that the president commission has been involved in all those people to come to a fix for our long-term problems. now, they came up with 28% as a tax rate. they came up with three to one in terms of spending cuts. the president is nowhere near embracing that at this point. we're so far from that at this point that it seems like the opportunity was mittsed last year. >> right now, the pr
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00am EST
send the nation off of the fiscal cliff, letting all income tax rates to jump, spending cuts to take hold, investment income rates to jump. he's willing to do that. he thinks republicans would get the political blame. republicans, on the other hand, note that listen, the president's going to have to have another term where he's dealing with what's likely to be a deep recession as a result of these huge income tax jumps. so it's a position that neither man really wants to be in, but talks have completely dried up. yesterday speaker john boehner and president obama did not speak and their staffs did not speak. so really this thing is at a standstill like we've never seen before. >> yeah. so the fact that we're not even talking now. the aides aren't even talking the each other. where does that leave us? how comfortable is everybody with this? when are they going to restart speaking? >> house republicans released their own proposal a couple days ago, which they thought made major concessions in offering up new tax revenue, which the party hasn't really done in decades. the president and
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 9:00am EST
? >> i think it depends on what it is. very important not to go over the fiscal cliff. and i believe they will get a we'll that increases the taxes or most of them and the mindless spending cuts in the sequester. that doesn't mean they will have all the details of a grand bargain. i think they will have a frame work for making the grand bargain in the next session of conk. -- congress. but that's just more hope than a firm prediction. i don't see how it can really fail. because everybody stands to lose if we go over the cliff. >> alice, do you sense, is there the possibility of turmoil if we go through, say, just new year's eve itself and don't have a deal, can treasury withhold some of these -- can they maintain some of these withholding rates to the degree where we don't see money start to fly out of consumer's pockets on january 1? >> yes, i think they can. but it will be difficult and awkward. and on the spending side, agencies can hold back on the cuts for a while. but it's a very messy thing to do. we shouldn't have to do it. an orderly government should be able to function, so that we don't have to play games with the budget in order to get past an artificial barrier.
CNBC
Dec 2, 2012 7:30pm EST
? >> i think it's sold as a cliff as if we're going to fall entirely off and have this massive fiscal tightening next year. what is more likely is a modest tax hike and spending cuts and most things extended and we live to fight for another day. i personally think we will have fiscal cliffs over and over the next several years. if you have a modest fiscal tightening next year, it's nothing new for the economy. we have had 1% for every year of the recovery. the deficit has improved by about 3.5% in the first 3 1/2 years of the recovery. so a little more modest fiscal tightening hasn't stopped the recovery and probably won't next year. i agree it is a negative but you have to weigh it in the drop in unemployment, the revival in china, the four-year high in confidence, the rise in home prices and housing activity. a lot of other positives will help keep consumers, businesses and other things strong even in the face of modest tightening. >> which sectors are at risk? even if there is an agreement. you say there are certain sectors at risk even with an agreement. >> the areas at risk are m
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00am EST
positive commentses about the likelihood they'll strike a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. mining giant rio tinto plans to reign in spending by $7 billion, but still promises to beef up iron ore output. uk banks bracing for possible new rules. and hitting the jackpot, the search is on for the lucky winners of the power ball lockry as two tickets matched all the the numbers. >>> look at the yields falling to 5.22 and 4.5% respectively. italy was town break the 4.5% mark earlier. euro-dollar is rebounding. dollar-yen also moving higher. aussie dollar was an underperformer. gold prices have stabilized. what did the volatile prices mean? we're joined by scott evans. scott, welcome. the extra ordinary move yesterday in gold wasn't so much the decline as the nature of it. we saw a sharp falloff in gold and other commodities. broadly speaking, volatility when it comes to the metals, is it an important part of the thesis for mining stocks? >> i think less so. it's more of a short to medium term call. it's much more to do on with a positive on rios, as well. if you look across the uk listed mining sectors, you come up with a reason no
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 12:00pm EST
concerns around the fiscal cliff, but in reality the economic deteriorate started a year ago. capital spending declined in the third quarter, but really started to deteriorate in the july/august period well before the fiscal cliff concerns became center stage. i think those economic detier a's, components probably lead to reduced employment, and reduced consumers spending starting in the first quarter. this is an economic deterioration, probably amplified by the policy concerns, but nonetheless that has occurred, and is forcing our earnings numbers lower. we're now at 10 as a good example. >> you've managed to make adam parker look like a bull. you're looking for 1390 in the s&p for next year. he had 1167, but he's looking to 1434. >> so far, i think there are a number of folks that have yet to come out, but unfortunately we have to live with that status for a while. quite frankly investors are not being paid a ton. we start to rebound -- we'll have to get more optimistic. >>> good to talk with you as always. >> thanks for having me. >> see you soon. >>> what's going on with this rally? up 125 on the d
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 7:00pm EST
we're going to get out of this mess. >> we don't just want to avoid the fiscal cliff. of course the parties want to avoid a fiscal cliff. but what conservatives want is to make 180-degree turn in fiscal policy towards lower taxes, lower spending, and greater prosperity. most importantly opportunity for all. >> i love that. i want you it talk that through with peter goodman. peter goodman, appreciate it. nan hey worth. one of our next guests believes the house republicans should dive head first off the fiscal cliff. oh, my god. he's going to have to explain that one to me. don't forget, folks, free market capitalism is the best bet to prosperity. let me just underscore the prosperity part. we need a lot more of it. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back. >>> welcome back to "the kudlow report." the new york mets agreed to a megamillion dollar contract extension for all star third baseman david wright today. he's not alone in this year-end wheeling and dealing. we're going to explain why baseball's feeling a fiscal cliff tax frenzy. that coming up in about 30 minutes. >>> now switching gears, with just 33 days until the country's economy plummets off the tax and fiscal cliff and there's still no deal in sight, we see today a daily caller o
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 7:00pm EST
-outs from their customers because of fiscal cliff. >> i'm saying we reported there's a contraction. that could be good for stocks. >> if you get a resolution, then you get past that and businessless start to spend again. then the 2.7% gdp number, maybe it's higher than that. if we could get off the backs of businesses, we would get 5%, 6%, and it would go to -- >> but even with lower. >> i want to ask you this. the reason i want you to forget the fiscal cliff is the washington crowd will do something to stop all the tax quits from expiring. they're going to argue about the upper end. that's why there isn't going to be a fiscal cliff. you've got tax hikes next year from obama care, 3.8% tax hike on all the investments, and capital gains going up, different going up, inheritance tax. we're taxing or capital, taxes our seed corn. how you will that affect all this? >> that means you don't get to your gdp, but you have good things going on in housing. if you look at the core logic numbers this past month, that's very encouraging. in the face of all this, we have four years highs in consumer confidence. to me there are pockets in the manufacturing sector that have siege a resurgence, construction, grid rep
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 7:00pm EST
you say the right thing about the fiscal cliff deal, boy, will these markets turn on a dime and i would like to be optimistic. neither taxes nor spending nor entitlements were solved today. in fact, president obama never even mentioned the word spending. the one thing we do know, your taxes are going up from an obama care tax attack. no matter what happens on the fiscal cliff. and is another bailout nation on the way? student loans up to $1 trillion, huge delinquency rates, default rates going sky high, no credit standards and sky high tuition. sound likes a real bad story to me. ceos have just wrapped up their meeting with president obama about the fiscal cliff and minutes ago john harwood landed a big fish. goldman sachs ceo lloyd blank finefein. >> the highlight of the meeting was the intensity from which the white house emphasized that marge al rates as a matter of math and politics have to go up somewhat, if not all the way to 31.6 had to go up and as p he said as a necessary ingredient of a deal, he would support such a rate. >> the president said we would pursue our own interests. i'm not -- i'm certainly not insisting, i don't even
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 3:00pm EST
. the entire scenario playing out is the fiscal cliff ends up being bullish no matter what. spending cuts makes bonds rise, yields fall and making stocks paradoxically even more attractive. they become the new bonds. >> alan, can you tell from option activity which way the markets are betting right now, presuming that not going over the fiscal cliff would be positive for stocks and going over the cliff would be negative? what's the market betting on right now? >> well, i won't even make that presumption because we don't focus on what the event is. we focus on how the market is going to react. the vix has increased a little over the last week or so, but it's still at a historically low level. i think i'm very encouraged by the price action we've seen where we made this bottom and followed through last week, which is key, and we're holding strong this week. i i think the key for the market is to follow the dollar. we're below 80. that can really add another boost to the markets over the longer term. that's positive for corporations to get some more growth out of this overall strong trend we
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 6:00am EST
the fiscal cliff, global business travel association estimates that u.s. biz travel spending will take a $20 billion hit in the short term. but how about the long term outlook? find out next. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. >>> what are the long term effects for business travel if the economy falls off the fiscal cliff? the gbta predicts the reduced deficits and lower interest rates will lead to growth in the economy and an increase in business travel spending. >>> welcome back. now to the weather channel. reynolds wolf is standing by. what is happening around the country today? >> the story is all west. everything is taking place out west. rain, some strong winds, even some snow. some places snow getting up to around 2, 3 feet,
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 6:00am EST
these guys are never going to get anything done. the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically week and counting before you think the equity market really drops significantly? >> if we do get a deal done do, we just maintain the 2% that we're stuck in with the high unemployment and not go down? or does it actually allow us to start growing again? is anybody talking growth? >> we're talking growth. >> is it possible to ever get back to that in this environment? >> it is. you have a lot of problems with the piece. >> do you briyou believe if you rote deficit -- two different ways. you either keep the government that you have and pay for it by raising taxes, or you kind of leave taxes where they ar
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 2:00pm EST
spending cuts. notice i did not call it the fiscal cliff. so ultimately which wins out? let's ask gina sanchez, director of equity and asset allocation at rubini global economics. dan, i know you've been traveling, london, san fran, all parts in between last couple of weeks. how concerned are your clients about what's going to happen on january 1st? >> it's not so much that they're concerned about what happens on january 1st because i think the bulk of our meetings have focused on the fact that this isn't really a cliff so much as a lot of people have been saying a slope. more importantly to your first question, i have been on the road for the better part of 2 1/2 months now. i don't really get many questions or have many debates about greece or spain anymore. i think there's definitely a back burner element to what's going on in europe as people focus whether it happens on january 1st or not on the fiscal cliff. >> let me follow up with that real quick. here's the thing -- the greek situation, which was driving the market negativity a few months ago, is the same, roughly, as it w
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 2:00pm EST
. it's been ignored because we need to get beyond this fiscal cliff. it is extremely frustrating for investors to watch but it is why we've seen one of the slowest novembers in years. >> a number of companies these days offering special dividends, it is really starting to pile up. walmart, costco, wynn, all changing their payouts ahead of the fiscal cliff. steve, is there any danger that once the goodie bag has been given out that the investor will make like a tree and disappear out of the stock? >> well, i mean there's an old saying on wall street -- buy the mystery and sell the history. i think these lists of potential special dividend stocks have been around for a few weeks now. i think a lot of the stocks have already discounted the potential for the special dividend. i think the trade's kind of over. it was a good trade maybe two or three weeks ago but many of these stocks have already moved up in value. yeah, there might be a surprise or two here that people haven't figured out yet, but to me it is kind of yesterday's news. >> steve, when and if the fiscal cliff is resolved, wh
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 9:00am EST
cliff or not. how's this one? we lose either way. you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the weekend anybody -- i mean almost anybody, can appear on a sunday talk show and make some inflammatory comment about the fiscal cliff not working, it's a mess, it's never going to happen and then you wake up and you're down 15 points monday morning. that's a problem figuring out what to do over the weekend. it could go the other way. generally it's a little bit more on the gloomy side. then you have the problem with december. we're going into the last month. today is the last day of november. people are behind the curve. a shocking number of people i spoke to are below whatever their benchmark is. do you lighten up? do you stay long what you got? it's hard to maneuver around because you need to get outperformance. y
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 9:00am EST
even europe's pmi improves a touch in november. first up, we're one month away from the fiscal cliff and so far the white house and congressional republicans are still in disagreement over how to reduce the deficit and avoid a raft of tax hikes and spending cuts. yesterday our own jim cramer and maria bartiromo were on "meet the press" and cramer had a message for fellow panelists and father of the anti-tax pledge, grover norquist. >> most ceos are republican. they're on board. they're not on board with you. they're not on board with you because they fear your view. they think you do not favor going -- you favor going over the cliff. that's what they think. they think that you favor -- >> just for the record since we're on tv. that's silly if they think that they shouldn't be ceos. >> it doesn't really matter. that's what they think. >> i want you to walk me up to that moment. >> behind the record. i like that too. >> i'm stuck. like grover is stuck with this pledge he made everybody take which is that they have to go over the cliff because they obviously will not ever say the word tax. they will only say revenue. i'm stuck speaking to many more ceos than grover norquist is. he thinks it's silly. he thinks ceos are silly. i don't think they'r
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00am EST
like that anymore. so when we look at the fiscal cliff and everything else in terms of actual cuts in spending, everybody recoils in horror because they know it implies. >> you made your point, though, we surrendered to fdr, and instead of supplementing people, instead of letting them earn their own success, we're going to somehow try to deal with outcome rather than opportunity and pay for it. and you want to pay for -- >> no, i don't. >> in a fairer society. what you see as a fairer society. >> i didn't say it was a fairer society. but chris brought up an important point. and i want people to talk about the "wall street journal" today. we're not talking about cutting spending, not talking about cutting growth rates, which is a huge difference, one reason why people like me look at former presidential candidate mitt romney talk about npr or planned parenthood. the number one answer for balancing the budget is foreign aid. which if you really wanted to balance the budget and you don't always have to go to the department of justice or whatever it may be. but over the next ten years, 90% of federal outlays
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 7:00pm EST
fiscal cliff or whether a deal is reached to avert that, middle class taxes are going up, and so is spending. so there's a lot of cynicism in this process. >> real quick -- >> that's why the president has the edge. >> bottom line, the republicans are poised to take a fall? is that what your numbers show you? >> they are poised to take a hit on this right now. longer term, tim pact will weigh on the obama administration if the economy doesn't recover. >> all right. many thanks, scott rasmussen, appreciate it very much. >> thanks. >>> with just 26 days until we fall off the tax and fiscal cliff, two dozen house republicans have apparently defected from the boehner plan and signed a bipartisan letter with democrats. people are now asking is there a fallback position for the gop? well, here now to tell us is house majority whip california republican kevin mccarthy, the number three man. mr. mccarthy, as always, thank you for coming back on the show. can i get your comment on this letter, two dozen republicans, they're talking about tax rate flexibility along with a bunch of democrats. what's your ta
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 2:00pm EST
falling off the cliff. it's because the company blamed the fiscal cliff for its dramatically lower fiscal fourth quarter guidance which has sent the stock plummeting. it was down as much as 20% earlier today. the ceo joe kennedy says advertisers are being particularly cautious about spending in january which is included in pandora's fiscal fourth quarter. >> we did reduce guidance. i think it is very prudent because of this unique situation we have in which we're sensitive to the mix of ad spend in january as opposed to february and march. >> now, the last time pandora's stock dropped this much in one day was back in october on reports of apple preparing to launch a streaming music service. wall street analysts are keeping an eye on those very tough competitive issues as well as the fact that pandora spends over half its revenue on music licensing fees. the c.o.o. says he thinks the company is on good track and points to its mobile growth. though, investors do seem skeptical. brian. >> julia, thank you very much for that. we're going to leave it there. running a little short on time. is pandora's plunge a big buying opportunity? let's bring in the director of research at albert freid and company. what do you think? >> i think a lot of things. i think mr. kennedy's guidance f
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 9:00am EST
it, we have one way to get there and it's called the fiscal cliff and will send us into recession but we may get deficit reduction but others believe we won't get spending cuts that we need. more will take place in defense which many argue does need to happen perhaps though not in the same way it does. we shall see. what's today's date? the fourth now. we're not too far. people say the 18th. we need to at least see something for the 21st. >> they're going on vacation with legislation. is that right? should they be able to take off? >> we should sequester their vacation. >> a great tweet this morning, jim. if you had a big project due at work, would you be going on vacation a week from tomorrow? >> let's say our bosses said we need you to finish this by year end. pal, man, i got a trip to st. bartz. what would they say? they would say stay down there. i don't like one of the defensive line guys that gets fired by the eagles. does he get to fly back from texas? we would fire these guys where they are, when they are on vacation. no. they get to take vacation without finishing their project. >> a couple good poll numbers out today. abc/"the washington post" if w
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00pm EST
in a big way, i don't think anybody believes we're going to go over the fiscal cliff. there will be some sort of resolution. they'll come up with some tax cuts, some breaks in spending, and probably kick the can down the road on a lot of it. i love the way this market is acting. it's not selling off with all the bad news, all the bickering, all the bad words on each side. you've got to love the way that this market is holding up here. doesn't mean investors need to be carefree, but overall, it looks like the market is setting up with a lot of negative sentiment out there. looks like there's a lot of opportunity for a big run higher once we get some form of resolution. i really believe we're going to get it. >> you think by year end? >> i really do. i think they want to go home for christmas. they're not going to want to not go home for christmas. you can always count on politicians to do the right thing when all other options have been exploited. they're going to finally get there because they have to. they're not going to solve 100% of it right away. >> jump in, abbigail. >> i think it's too early to be bearish or bullish, for that matter. i think that if we look back t
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 3:00pm EST
plans for these massive spending cuts that would come at the end of the year if we go over the fiscal cliff. the white house saying they don't expect we will. they still hope it can be prevented, but they have to start planning. also, speaker of the house john boehner meeting with small business leaders on capitol hill where he reiterated some of his key points. again, just within the past hour. take a listen. >> business owners with us today are here to highlight president obama's demand to raise tax rates instead of cutting spending. his plan will hurt nearly 1 million small businesses around our country. that will affect hundreds of thousands of jobs. >> reporter: and guys, there are republicans here on capitol hill who are urging the speaker to cut a deal with the president. i talked to one of the earliest republicans to say, you know what, let's take a the president up on his offer to extend the bush tax cuts for everybody under $250,000 and at least take that uncertainty off the table and then continue to negotiate the rest to have later. some of the republicans are now coalessi
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00am EST
geithner, nancy pelosi says congress should address the fiscal cliff in two stages. first lawmaker shoes agree to spending cuts and an infrastructure package along with passing the middle class tax cut. she says tax and entitlement reform would then come in the next year. mean while christine lagarde says she's hopeful an agreement can be found. >> are you confident that they will reach an agreement? >> i have to come to talk about the fiscal cliff? practicing matti >> we all have fiscal cliff fatigue. >> yeah, i think it's totally understandable, but it still hasn't been dealt with as we've just seen. we think there will be a fiscal slide. we have kind of three scenarios in find. a full fiscal cliff, a bunny slope or something in the middle, a fiscal slide. and i think that's where we're headed. we believe it will be in the neighborhood of 1.5% of gdp in fiscal adjustment and i think that's obviously better than the full lack of 4.5. and it's better than -- worse than something that wouldn't make too much difference. 1.5 will make an important difference still. >> and what's in that 1.5% in terms of tax hikes
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00pm EST
the lack of progress over the fiscal cliff. is there progress? is there no progress 123 are the democrats giving? have they given? the only thing given that i know is the tablet. that's what i want to spend a moment on while we bemoan is the farce that is washington. one of the worst aspects of this era where we have to hang on the word of every people who frankly aren't actually trying to make us any money, and if anything want to take it from us, is there are companies doing amazing things, soen in the interests of reminds us some companies are doing great things that can make you money, i want to celebrate the products of three terrific companies as well as their stocks, because after all this is "mad money," not mad tablets. first one of my favorses is the column that consequence taply amazes me, david pentagon, the "new york times" writer who opines brilliantly in a can't-miss column about tech products. i love this guy. today's product starts several enough, a segment of an npr-call-in seg meant that he was going to offered opinions, but to quote, all six callers had the same question -- which tablet should i get? it was a terrific jumping-off spot. however, for me, this question was
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 3:00pm EST
vermont governor howard dean says bring it on. going over the fiscal cliff will actually help america. he's going to make his case, very bold statement there, to someone whose company will be decimated by the spending cuts to defense companies. you do not want to miss this confrontation. ricans are alwayso work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future. ♪ >>> pretty clear apple stock is having its worst week in more than two years. let's get to bertha coombs with the details. >> tough end of the week ear. it's apple's horrible, awful week. today's decline saw shares hit a real technical weak point, the so-called death cross. that's where the 50-day moving average, the top line in yellow, crossed below the orange line. that's the 200-day moving average. according to the spoke investment group, the last time that happened in september 2008, shares didn't bottom u
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 3:00pm EST
this fiscal cliff. we're not sure what will happen. many people predicting we'll go over the cliff. if we go over the cliff and the automatic spending cuts take effect and the tax increases take effect, what do you think happens to the economy? >> well, at the brt meeting that you mentioned, where the president was nice enough to come over, the question was asked, if we go over the fiscal cliff, how many businesses in this room will reduce capital investment? remember, i just said -- and it's very demonstrable that capital investment is what drives gdp growth rate and job creation. that tells a story right there. if we go across the fiscal cliff, we will have an economic contraction or slow down at best. >> how are things looking right now ahead of the holidays? i'm sure your company is real busy, fedexing gifts. what are your expectations for this holiday season? >> well, you know, the 300,000 wonderful teammates of fedex are working very hard. we publicly forecast a couple weeks ago that on the 10th we would move 19 million shipments through our network. that's up about 11% year over year. e-commerce is causing a significant amount of
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 2:00pm EST
the first of many fiscal cliffs to come, if you will, much like debt ceilings of the 1980s. i think most investors have already done what they need to do for the fiscal cliff. it is called diversification. beyond that, i think they should focus more on what's going to be left after the cliff -- >> where can you hide? where can you diversify away from the fiscal cliff in minibonds? that's boring! >> well, i think you're sufficiently diversified. everyone should own a little bit of everything, stocks, bonds, commodities, overseas markets as well as domestic and real estate. and that's good enough. but i think if you do much more than that in anticipation of this, i think you're going to do yourself a disservice. i think it is better to focus on what we're going to return to very quickly after the end of this month or maybe a couple weeks into january and that's the fundamentals on the ground. they to me are looking better and better. >> you're a rich, successful guy. you're probably the mayor of minneapolis de facto. right? you got gold bars stashed in your garage out back, i'm sure.
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 1:00pm EST
are almost nowhere. that is not good news as we approach the fiscal cliff. specifically, what areas would you be willing to compromise on in terms of spending or in terms of the tax proposals that are out there to try and get this thing solved? >> well, first of all, in terms of speaker boehner's comments, i think we have to recognize there is a certain choreography that goes on in a negotiation, as might be expected. after the leak the leadership got together and said the right things. then there's going to be a distancing as the difficult terms are negotiated until we come together again. i'm kf didnconfident we will an avoid the fiscal cliff. i recognize we'll have to give, as well as the other side, but i do completely agree with the president that the election was about something and one of the center front issues was whether those that have done well in the last decade should be called upon to do a little more in terms of helping to pay down our deficit and debt. i think the electorate answers that question so that's got to play a role in the negotiation and has. but i think we'll get to yes. >> how are you going to do it though? you sai
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 3:00pm EST
the ceos in the room with president obama this week in the fiscal cliff meetings. many of the executives saying that the white house sounded resounding resoundingly reasonable when describing plans to address the debt and deficit. >> so was this proposal the white house made yesterday with more spending and very few spending cuts, was that what mr. sorenson was expecting out of the gate? he joins us on the telephone with his thoughts. good to have you with us. >> glad to be with you. >> when you were with the other ceos at the white house, does it jive with what we're hearing about that made mitch mcconnell laugh yesterday? are those two plans one in the same? >> well, i'm hopeful that what's happening in the media is posturing by both parties and doesn't reflect where either party thinks a deal will end up. i think what the president talked with us about on wednesday afternoon was much more a sense of where things ought to end up, and that was, i think, somewhat different than it sounds like what was proposed. >> so you didn't hear about the tax increase for the wealthiest, the spending increases that made mitch mcconnell laugh. those specifics you didn't get into with the president on wednesday, is that what you're saying? >> we certainly talked with the president and heard from the th
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 6:00am EST
thing. they're typing it essentially. >> will the resolution of the fiscal cliff and even some progress on our long-term problems, knowing that at best we're just putting off austerity, sooner or later it's coming, right? higher taxes and lower government spending, right? you combine that with reinhardt, rogoff and the idea we're in a 2% world all of a sudden, would doing the fiscal cliff make it possible to do 5% or are we just -- we know austerity's coming and we know -- i'm saying we've got a lot of debt -- i'm saying that we are maybe in a new -- we might be in a new normal. is there any reason to think we could do a 4% or 5%? >> nobody wants to take an automatic hit. the number you want to achieve and achieve it quickly, that's one aspect, but no one wants a huge hit, for example, to defense spending. >> do you think we'll get to 7% in unemployment? >> i do. 6.9%. >> even though we're facing the same kind of austerity as europe. >> i think american companies put americans back to work. >> and freeing up the corporate cash will overcome -- >> get rid of the uncertainty. >> why would the cash be freed up? if you are raising capital gains tax -- all the things we're doing are negative. >> hold on. i guess i disagree fundamentally that the capital ga
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 9:00am EST
earning more than $75,000 a year. there really is a fiscal cliff and concern about rising taxes in those consumer sentiment numbers creeping in and those higher income households pulled back on spending expectations on big ticket items of vehicles and appliances and consumer durables. that's significant. in terms of sandy, one thing i would note is on unemployment survey it was taken on november 5th, the day before the election. remember, there was a nor'easter a few days later that compounded some of the disruptions related to sandy and many of the unemployment insurance claims because people couldn't get out to make the unemployment claims didn't occur until the peak in the middle of november. i think the timing of this survey really did matter in this. steve made a good point on earlier than usual thanksgiving maybe swamping some of the retail effects that we would have seen from sandy because of the seasonals and the way the data was captured. i don't think underlying economy is that much stronger with downward revisions we saw in previous months. i do think the fact that timing and nor'easter was also in here and that did down airplanes and further exacerbate problems in new york. >> let me
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00am EST
and if they spending less because of the fiscal cliff. here's what he had to say. >> i'm more about business behavior than consumer behavior. people continue to spend, housing is a little better. all the things that affect stock market are in decent shape. the question was will everything going on cause them on slow down again. >> what are you you see rg businesses right now? >> almost a year and a halving a go, businesses getting concerned about the nature of the dialogue about the fiscal situation? washington and in europe and the issues that had to be dealt with long term and how it affects near term business in terms of what would be accelerated appreciation for investment in business. what will be the final demand. so the uncertainty factor started weighing in and caused everybody to be much more cautious and continue to be more and more cautious worried about what might happen next. >> you're a member of the fix the debt organization. you're worried about what happens if we go over the fiscal cliff. play out the scenario for how things would go down if we actually do move past january 1 without an agreement. >> if you get lots of economist projections
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00pm EST
thanks to john wattson. >>> political posturing on the fiscal cliff from leading republicans and democrats alike. >> i remain hopeful that productive conversations can be had in the days ahead. but the white house has to get serious. >> we have made our proposal. let them come forward with something. >> find out what senate majority leader harry reid's nevada constituents are saying about his performance. >>> also, is it time for the u.s. to join the ranks and put $1 billis to rest in favor of a $1 coin? believe it or not, people feel passionate about this issue. our heated debate is coming next. stay with us. system spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. information on my phone. connection to doctors who get where i'm from. and tools to estimate what my care may cost. so i never missed a beat. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in c
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 12:00pm EST
summer. plus we had the election and fiscal cliff oncoming. with that, we still got over 2% growth. so even with some kind of drag from higher taxes and spending into next year, without a lot of those -- those severe head winds, you know, i just don't see how with a global -- coordinated global monetary easing policy from the central banks, how you're going to have a worser economy next year and therefore lower profits. >> joe? or josh? >> hi, tony. josh brown. i'm just curious, if you took a look at that gdp third quarter revision from this morning, one of the things i think jumped out most is that really all of the improvement comes as a result of both federal spending and then the other thing -- then the other thing that people don't want to see which is a lot of inventory restocking which i understand is seasonal. but now that's on the backs of the consumers, actually, taking those products out of stores to their homes. are we really going to be able to say that that was a good upward revision? even though the number went up? >> no. frankly, the market would have already priced that in after they released the number. we're in what we're calling
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 9:00am EST
pandora's advertisers are displaying caution about spending because of the fiscal cliff. he'll be on "squawk on the street" at 11:40 eastern time. and netflix paying for exclusive rights to stream disney movies. a lot of happenings moving stocks in a big way. with pandora, analysts give pandora a pass but they keep putting out bright spots in third quarter that did come in better than expected. mobile monthization. >> this is the first company that came out and blamed the fiscal cliff. one of the few companies that would not be worried about the fiscal cliff because of great growth opportunities. could this be a competitive thing? >> i use them both. a huge fan of both. jpmorgan says it doesn't change the thesis. the theme is that they, like others, monthization and mobile continues to do well and you get guidance and morgan says it's frustrating. >> guidance was terrible. another disaster. it may be too early to buy pandora to put it in zynga groupon. groupon, i don't know if you call the deal today. it's awesome. one of three different i can do. >> you can get two in one day. >> i
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00pm EST
% in the month of october. nearly triple the 0.5% expected by analyst. the fiscal cliff looms large. it threatens a lot of this recovery on the recovery. joining me is allen smith, ceo of prudential real estate investors. nice to have you on the program. >> thank you very much. >> what's your take on this whole fiscal cliff discussion. if we go over the cliff, does that undo some good news we're seeing in housing and construction? >> i think with respect to the single family housing market, the impact will be somewhat limited. in the sense that the single family home market has fallen so far. when you look at some of the key indicators today, housing aff d affordability is the best it's been. consumer balance sheets have deld deleveraged. excess supply has been dealt with. with every new job there's greater propensity to form households which means people tend to buy homes. going over the fiscal cliff, frankly, i think will delay the recovery in the howing market but certainly won't roll it back to what we saw over the last few years. >> what about higher taxes and particularly, you kno
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 3:00pm EST
for 24 hours with prevacid24hr. >>> welcome back. the fight over the fiscal cliff heating up with both parties accusing the other of failing to offer substantial plans. >> to this point, that's right. without a deal, automatic spending cuts and higher taxes will kick in january 1st. that's something our next guest wants to avoid. we welcome back democratic congressman charlie rangel of new york. good to see you. welcome back. >> good to be back. >> we're at that awkward part of the negotiating process where nobody wants to be the first to step up, especially on the spending side. so do you want to be that person? can you give us some sense of where the democratic side would want to make those cuts in entitlements to get us closer to a deal? >> how in the world would you talk about cutting spending before you find out how much you have to spend? isn't this all about a revenue shortfall? the first thing we should do is find out, how much money can reraise, what is the gap, and what we can't do in terms of raising revenue we go to the cuts part. >> that's a great point. so let's do that. apparently if you raise taxes on the highest earners, that'll get you $31 billion. if you eliminate all loopholes and exemptions, that wil
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 12:00pm EST
the shares back at this point because of this looming fiscal cliff and i think all these 103 companies that have done so are addressing exactly that fact, and i do hope that we can get our spending under control like he has in ethan allen. >> all right. good last word on that topic. up next, the case for a euro rally when we come back in about two minutes. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. >>> welcome back to the halftime show. eu finance ministers clashing today over a banking supervision plan. i hate when they do that will renewed arguments mean an end to the euro rally as we know it heading into 2013? ask kathy lean of bk asset management. she is live in new york. kathy, what's the answer? >> i don't think it's going to the end of euro rally but i think give us an opportunity to possib
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 2:00pm EST
credit card, greg. >> that is fair. don't forget, even if we fall off the fiscal cliff, still have to go to the grocery store, still do your every day spending, which is increasingly going on cards. this is also a little more of a u.s. issue. take master card, for example, 60% of the revenues come from outside of the u.s. i think you have to take a broader per smektive when looking at visa and master card. >> you like both the stocks but i believe visa slightly nudges out master card. why? >> yeah, over the long term, we do prefer visa a little bit a little larger. think they incrementally have a little bit better brand. there is an opportunity for them to buy back in their european division, which we think would be a positive transaction for earnings. not sure when that's exactly going to happen but that's something down the road. also, some outstanding litigation, there's this big merchant litigation against both companies. visa is less exposed than master card. but it's a tight call between the two. we like. >> are balances going up again, greg? you are right. i see a lot of people, grocery store, used to write checks or use debit now using cred
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 1:00pm EST
. >> see you then, mandy. thank you. >>> the fast-approaching fiscal cliff causing a lot of nervousness among businesses. the uncertainty over taxes causing many of them to pull back on spending and hiring, especially among the small manufacturing companies. our phil lebeau with new and exclusive data on that very subject. what do the numbers look like, phil? >> not pretty, sue. we talked with the folks at pay net, who track about 20 million loans involving 17 million small businesses and essentially, what they have found going back and looking at the data in the second quarter is essentially, this summer, a real pull back by small manufacturers, cutting investment in plants and equipment by 50%. the transportation equipment manufacturing sector, in particular that he saw a big dropoff, roughly 33%. when you take a look at small manufacturers overall, look at the end there. you see that dip there, going below the dotted line? that shows they have gone into negative territory in the second quarter when it comes to investment. the one silver lining here is small manufacturers, because they cut back, they are sitting on a lot of capital now. >> absolutely. there's a ton of cash on t
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 7:00pm EST
, welcome, as always. i want to ask you about the fiscal cliff, the state of play. there's revenues on the table. there's tax rate increases on the table. i don't know if there's spending on the table. what's your thinking prigt now? >> that it's a really, really bad idea to raise taxes. if you want your economy to grow, you should do the opposite. we have to cut taxes. that's how i'd fix the economy. leave more money in the private sector. the president is adamant about raising taxes and he's dead wrong. >> there are some people saying we need a deal to avoid a huge tax increase but year end that would throw us into recession. just a thought, would you compromise in terms of let's say a smaller tax rate increase -- let's say the top rate goes to 37% instead of 40%, maybe the threshold goads es to $500,000 $750,000 rather than $250,000? does that interest you? >> no. but what about means testing for entitlement. why don't we say the rich get less social security and they pay more for their medicare? it meets the president's animus that we must get more money out of the rich. let's just send less money to the rich. i'm also willing to compromise on military spending. the o
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00am EST
that in three weeks. >> so do you think we go off the fiscal cliff? >> no. all you've got to do -- you know what you've got to do on the tax side. that's simple. you have to palass a law that ss the law has to be overwritten. >> and what would be your position on that? >> i think it's the simple thing to do. obviously do what the president is saying, you know. he ran a campaign on it. the legitimacy of that. if you've got to act in three weeks, you're not going to revise the income tax code in three weeks. it may be perfectly legitimate. i think that both. personal and corporate need a lot of thought and a lot of revision. they're both broken. but you're not going to do that in three weeks. the challenge i see is in three weeks you've got to have some convincing balance of the tax side, the revenue side, with the expenditure side. it's inherent. you can't change the expenditures in three weeks. you can indicate intentions, but you can't -- >> what do you think happens then? >> i think you get some understanding about the kind of framework for dealing with the expenditure side. >> but y
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00am EST
us. >>> reminder of those headlines today. fiscal cliff negotiations have stalled on tax hikes. geithner is confident republicans will yield. manufacturing activity in china speeds up in november while the eurozone is confirmed in contraction. and singapore airlines is looking to sell its stake in virgin atlantic. delta reported to be the frontrunner. tax issues here in the uk on the corporate front. starbucks is reconsidering its tax arrangements for british operations in the wake of criticism by politicians and the media. the coffee chain is expected to make an announcement on the issue later this week. the same time, the british government will unveil a $10 billion plan to clamp down on tax avoidance by foreign mumity nationals. and italy, charges that they avoided taxes. claude kra hia has the details. >> possibly a fashion faux pas down here. they actually were tried already in 2011 for part of what they are being accused of today and they were actually -- the trial was closed. but the investigation was reopened after an appeal made by the state. and today they will be hea
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